Energy Emissions Modelling

Most recent modeling in our group

  • Climate Change Mitigation in Thailand’s Domestic Aviation: Mitigation Options Analysis towards 2050 – LEAP Model
    • Champeecharoensuk, A., S. Dhakal and N. Chollacoop (2023). Climate Change Mitigation in Thailand’s Domestic Aviation: mitigation options analysis towards 2050, Energies, 16(20), 7199, MDPI. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16207199
    • Thailand’s civil aviation industry has expanded rapidly in the past ten years resulting in increasing aviation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy consumption. The rapid growth in air transport is anticipated to continue further. Presently, domestic aviation and the economy of many countries are recovering rapidly in the post-COVID-19 period, resulting in fuel consumption and GHG emissions gradually increasing again. However, despite implementing the ICAO’s CORSIA (International Civil Aviation Organization’s Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation) rule for international aviation, GHG emissions in the domestic aviation sector are largely unregulated. Moreover, the literature lacks a GHG emissions analysis that considers this sector’s potential growth and mitigation policies for future GHG emissions. To close the gap, this study conducted a GHG emissions analysis from this sector under various scenarios through 2050 using historical data during 2008–2020 to forecast future trends. It evaluates the impact of the mitigation policies, such as fuel switching and aircraft technology, on improving fuel efficiency due to technological advancements in aircraft and carbon pricing. The results show that the fuel switching option would result in a significant long-term reduction in GHG emissions, whereas the carbon pricing option and aircraft technology option are desirable in reducing GHG emissions in the short term. Therefore, to meet GHG emissions reduction targets more successfully, all measures must be simultaneously executed to address short- and long-term mitigation strategies. These findings have significant implications for both present and future GHG emissions reduction measures, supporting Thailand’s 2050 climate targets and energy efficiency policies as the domestic aviation industry adjusts.

  • Impact of carbon price on Indonesia’s power sector up to 2050– TIMES Model
    • Kamandika, F.A., Dhakal, S. Impact of carbon price on Indonesia’s power sector up to 2050. Carb Neutrality 2, 27 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43979-023-00066-4
    • This study uses TIMES model to assess Indonesia’s power sector’s carbon price impact from 2020 to 2050 and the price needed by 2030 to meet the Paris Agreement NDC target. Four scenarios are used to model the impact of carbon price up to 2050: no carbon price, Indonesia’s current price of USD 2.02/tCO2e, ICPF middle- and high-income countries, USD 50/tCO2e and USD 75/tCO2e. Four price scenarios—10, 25, 35, and 150 USD/tCO2e —are added to better understand the carbon price’s effects. As carbon prices rise, installed capacity and power generation will shift to lower-carbon technology. Ultracritical coal, gas-fired, solar, geothermal, and hydropower plants will replace subcritical coal. Investment, fixed, and variable costs would exceed BaU with a higher carbon price. 2.02 to 25 USD/tCO2e can start the coal-to-gas switch but not significantly change the generation profile. The generation will change significantly above 35 USD/tCO2e. Carbon emissions peak lower with rising carbon prices. USD 25 carbon price reduces emissions significantly; a carbon price below that is costly and ineffective. Indonesian Law No. 16 of 2016 ratified the Paris Agreement NDC, committing Indonesia to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 29% by 2030 or 41% with international assistance. Energy sector emissions need to decrease by 11% for a 29 percent reduction and 14% for a 41 percent reduction. A 29% reduction requires USD 39.65/tCO2e carbon price, while a 41% reduction requires USD 43.78/tCO2e. These prices are still within the reasonable ICPF price limit for Indonesia to approach the middle-income country price floor.

  • Integrated Analysis of End-use Electrification and Cross-border Electricity Trade Policies for Hydropower Enabled Energy Transformation in Nepal – MAED, TIMES
    • Aryal, S., S. Dhakal and S. KC. (2023). Integrated Analysis of End-use Electrification and Cross-border Electricity Trade Policies for Hydropower Enabled Energy Transformation in Nepal, Renewable Energy Vol 219, Part 1 (Dec 2023) 119467, Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2023.119467
    • Whether an enormous untapped hydropower resource should be utilized domestically by heavily electrifying energy end-uses or should be exported to neighboring countries is often debated in Nepal. This study attempts to bring both policy options together and justifies with evidence the need to integrate end-use electrification and cross-border electricity trade policies in the energy transformation of Nepal. We found out that Nepal will continue to import electricity till 2027 to meet its electricity demand throughout the year though it has already started exporting its surplus electricity during the wet season because of the full availability of run-of-river type hydropower. The run-of-river will continue to dominate Nepal’s least-cost generation mix with a two-thirds share resulting in considerable surplus electricity during the high-flow season. Such surplus will exceed one-third of its total energy generation capacity in long-run in all end-use electrification scenarios (low to high). Nepal can use its existing cross-border electricity trade mechanism to sell its surplus electricity and can generate revenue of 67 billion USD in the high electrification scenario, which, combined with savings from fossil fuel import savings, can provide 85 % of total electricity generation investment needs.

  • The Assessment of the value of electricity saving and economic benefit to residential solar rooftop PV customers: The Case of Thailand – SAM-based
    • Gamonwet, P. and S. Dhakal (2023). The Assessment of the value of electricity saving and economic benefit to residential solar rooftop PV customers: The Case of Thailand. Energy Strategy Reviews 50 (2023) 101203 Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2023.101203
    • A rise in residential solar rooftop PV (SRPV) has been observed in Thailand because of the decreasing costs of solar photovoltaics (PV) and implementation of incentive programs for SRPV. However, without financial assistance, it is not economically feasible to invest in a SRPV system with Stationary Battery Storage (SBS) due to the high up-front cost of SBS and the low power retail price for household. This study examines the benefit to Thai households with SRPV under different technology regimes, incentives, rate structures, and trading mechanisms such as Peer-to-Peer (P2P), and financial aid programs. It is found that the households who install solar with SBS, or a Battery Electric Vehicle see a minor benefit. Net Energy Metering saves more money than Net Billing (NB) under different retail rate structures and price escalation as well as with different load patterns in pre-COVID19 and during COVID19 conditions. In addition, SRPV can deliver even greater financial return if it is supported by measures, such as a lower loan interest rate and a substantial share of the loan amount. Compared to NB, P2P energy trading is favorable for SRPV that purchase and sell excess solar rooftop energy after self-consumed with the neighboring household.

  • Energy Demand Modeling for the Transition of a Coal-Dependent City to a Low-Carbon City: The Case of Ulaanbaatar City – MAED model
    • Battulga, S. and S. Dhakal (2023). Energy Demand Modeling for the Transition of a Coal-Dependent City to a Low-Carbon City: The Case of Ulaanbaatar City.  Energies 2023, 16, 6291. MDPI. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16176291
    • Cities have committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting renewable energy. However, many cities continue to rely on fossil fuels, while renewable energy sources are not used or are unable to meet the demand that fossil fuels provide. Depending on the geographic location, climate, and resources, cities must find their own path to energy sustainability. The city of Ulaanbaatar is one of the coal-dependent cities, its electricity and heat consumption mainly coming from coal. In this study, the future final energy demand of a coal-dependent city is identified and analyzed to make it a low-carbon city. Long-term energy demand projections for Ulaanbaatar to 2050 are conducted using the model for analysis of energy demand (MAED) model. Four scenarios are developed based on the existing local and national policies in the socio-economic and energy sectors, as well as more ambitious policy and technology measures recommended by various studies in the MAED_D model. The final energy demand is calculated to be 548, 460, 334, and 264 PJ in 2050 for BAU, REF, NDC, and RM scenarios, respectively, compared to 135 PJ in 2020. The results show that the high penetration of electricity and renewable energy, energy efficiency measures, and energy intensity reduction in all sectors can significantly reduce the future energy demand and help the transition towards a low-carbon city.

  • Key Driver Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Thailand’s Public Bus Transport with Comparative Study on Metropolitan Bangkok Hotspots – LEAP model
    • Champeecharoensuk, T., P. Abdul Salam, S. Dhakal, N. Chollacoop (2022). Key Driver Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Thailand’s Public Bus Transport with Comparative Study on Metropolitan Bangkok Hotspots. Accepted for publication to Energy for Sustainable Development, 70 (October 2022), 456-465, Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2022.08.019
    • The 2007–2020 timeframe, an economic growth period coupled with a rising population for Thailand, witnessed an increase in fixed-route bus transportation options. It is expected that this sector will continue to grow and that additional routes will become accessible to the public in the near-term. It is generally accepted that the high Thai birth rate and the increased travel requirements of the less affluent will augment this growth. The objective of this study is to accurately estimate the 2007–2020 energy consumption and resultant greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from public land transport. The focus will be on the regularly scheduled fixed-route bus schedules in Thailand that emit undesired pollutants, specifically CO2, N2O and CH4. Once estimates are reached, the past impact and the future ramifications of this mode of transport’s contribution to the generation of toxic emissions into the environment will be analyzed. An evaluation of key carbon emission drivers will also be presented along with our identification of these pollutants. Furthermore, this study will focus comparatively on the areas of high development within Thailand, specifically, Bangkok localities referred to here as hotspots. These high density, economically vibrant areas contributed 15 % of Thailand’s total fixed-route bus emissions in 2020. Being the capital of Thailand with the largest population center, Bangkok serves as a unique focal point where data extrapolations can be compared and contrasted with the nation as a whole. Although results from our research will show that fixed-route bus transport represents a small portion of total GHG emissions in Thailand, the data will show that significant improvement can be made to reduce this sector’s carbon footprint. However, the most impactful contribution will be to the ‘quality of life’ benefit afforded to the large percentage of the Thai population that live within the concentrated areas serviced by fixed-route buses.

  • Medium-Term Assessment of Cross Border Trading Potential of Nepal’s Renewable Energy Using TIMES Energy System Optimization Platform – TIMES model
    • Aryal, S., and S. Dhakal (2022). Medium-Term Assessment of Cross Border Trading Potential of Nepal’s Renewable Energy Using TIMES Energy System Optimization Platform, Energy Policy, 168 (Sept 022), 113098.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113098
    • Hydropower holds the largest renewable share in global electricity supply and will remain as a key technology for greenhouse gas mitigation in future. Rapid deployment of hydropower projects without storage has created the risks of hydropower generation far exceeding electricity demand in coming years in Nepal. This paper attempts to assess the volume of such surplus energy by proposing the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) based framework suitable to estimate excess energy in renewable predominated system with detailed representation of hydropower. This study presents surplus renewable generation as Cross Border Electricity Trade (CBET) potential to show how instrumental CBET can be to avoid renewable energy curtailment with case study of Nepal. The results suggest Nepal not only can avoid 99.4 TWH of hydropower curtailment and financial loss of 500 billion Nepalese Rupees but also can reduce 81.5 million tons of CO2 equivalent emissions in India by 2030 using CBET policy instrument, however, timely construction of planned cross-border transmission lines is essential to reap the full benefits.

  • Impact of subsidy and taxation related to biofuels policies on the economy of Thailand: A dynamic CGE modelling approach – CGE model
    • Chanthawong, A., S. Dhakal, J. Kuwornu and K. Farooq (2020). Impact of subsidy and taxation related to biofuels policies on the economy of Thailand: A dynamic CGE modelling approach, Waste and Biomass Valorization, 11(3), pp. 909-929. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12649-018-0417-4
    • Thailand is the leader in biofuel, biodiesel and bioethanol production in South East Asia, using cassava, sugar cane and palm oil as feedstock. This study used econometric estimation to feed into a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model to analyze the impacts of biofuel policies on the economy of Thailand. We carried out several simulations on two set of issues (a) policy of increasing excise tax that consists of 12 scenarios such as increasing excise tax on oil products at a higher rate than biofuel products. The excise tax varies from 10 to 40% and (b) policy of increasing subsidy on biofuel consisting of four scenarios by subsidizing at 10–40% rate. The simulations indicate that increasing excise tax on oil products and biofuel products would increase Thailand’s gross domestic product, social welfare and total energy consumption. For subsidy on biofuel, increasing subsidy would not lead to significant increase in GDP, social welfare and energy factors. These results imply that government should carefully decide on a balance of excise tax and subsidy, but ensure that price of biofuel products cheaper than other oil products to attractive the biofuel consumption.